When the stock market broke into the last week, hope was in the air for economic recovery. But a sunny outlook was missing for most of us, wrote New York Times columnist Floyd Norris. Economists, he said, were about the economy: “Having been embarrassed by , there is an understandable hesitation to appear foolishly optimistic again.” Today, the committee of economists who mark the end of recession announced its to mark the end of the downturn. Where does this leave the real-estate market? Are housing analysts also hesitant to express optimism? Most would agree that home prices hit bottom around April or May last year, since then the Case-Shiller index has risen every month through January, writes Robert Shiller in this weekend’s . Cause for optimism? Not for Mr. Shiller. Recent polls show that economic forecasters are largely bullish about the housing market for the next year or two. But one wonders about the basis for such a positive forecast. Momentum may be on the forecasts’ side. But until there is evidence that the fundamental thinking about housing has shifted in an optimistic direction, we cannot trust that momentum to continue.

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